EU Referendum - A 'Gut' Decision

True to form, the media and political commentariat has moved on from the Election post-mortem (leave that the the Labour Party), and is now turning its gimlet eye onto the next big constitutional issue, the EU Referendum. Prepare to be bombarded by a plethora of pollsters, economists, writers, pundits, politicians and the odd snake-oil salesman, all telling us that we’d be better in or better out.

Polling supremo Peter Kellner, Chairman of YouGov, is predicting that if the Prime Minister was able to recommend to the electorate that Britain remains part of the club, the ‘Ins’ will defeat the ‘Outs’ by a margin of 2:1. CBI President Mike Rake urged business leaders to stick their heads above the parapet and argue the case for staying in. Nigel Farage has returned from the dead [apparently by popular acclaim] to urge the British to reject the EU and stand on our own two feet. On the BBC, Mr Farage said the Government is planning to bring forward the date for the Referendum to next May, to coincide with the 2016 Scottish and Local Council Elections.

If true, that means only one year of EU debate, rather than two, a blessing for many of us I’m sure. Whatever the timing, I fully expect the papers to fill up with closely argued economic cases, examples of lunatic laws from ‘Brussels Bureaucrats,’ and earnest policy discussions about the impact of the referendum on Scotland, or Wales or…… Weston-Super-Mare for all we care.

Political anoraks, ‘philes’ and ‘phobes’ will be in heaven, and the rest of the population will sigh, turn the page and get on with their day. 

For sure, the EU Referendum provides jobs and airtime for the pundit tribe, and their arguments may carry some influence, but I believe for most of us, the rationale for voting yes or no will boil down to something more fundamental than an economic policy paper.

No economist or pundit can predict with any certainty the economic effect of leaving the EU. We don’t now know whether Britain will survive and thrive on its own, or wither and fade. So ignore all that. It’s irrelevant.

I believe that for most of us it will be a personal matter, where voters use their own judgment.  Do we feel that, as citizens of the UK, we also desire to be a citizen within a bigger political and trading institution – part of the continent of Europe – or do we wish to face into the future as a quasi-independent Nation State? Do we, in our hearts, believe we’d be better off on our own, or better off in a club? Bound up in these decisions are a number of factors – all emotional: fear of globalisation. A nostalgic view of Britain’s island history, standing up to fascism. A wish to conform, or a yearning to discover our inner John Bull.

Introvert or extrovert, outward-looking or inwardly-focused? These are visceral, rather than pragmatic, criteria. Proponents of either in or out need to avoid dull fact sheets and economic forecasting during the referendum campaign, and focus instead on how belonging, or separation, affects voters in their guts. The debate about Europe, is a debate about the kind of country (and people) we want to be.