The Certus General Election update

General Election update

The 2015 General Election is paradoxical. Most commentators agree that the campaign itself has been boring and facile, yet the outcome promises to be one of the most exciting for many years. In another paradox, the politician who is making the running in this campaign, SDP leader Nicola Sturgeon, is not even standing for a Westminster seat. The polls have hardly moved, and as the campaign moves into the final two weeks, neither of the major parties has achieved cut-through.

The likeliest outcome at present is that the Tories capture the most seats, but not enough to form a coalition, even with Lib Dem, DUP and [dare we say it] UKIP support. Labour’s decimation in Scotland – where the SNP are currently forecast to win between 45-49 seats – means Ed Miliband’s hopes of an overall majority have also vanished in the scotch mist, leaving him no option but to make overtures to the SNP and the Lib Dems.

There’s little doubt that a Tory Government would suit the SNP’s longer term plans to push for another referendum on independence, by giving nationalists a bogey figure to fight, but Ms Sturgeon, nicknamed the ‘boiled sweet,’ has been nevertheless been making soundings to Mr Miliband, proposing a ‘progressive centre left Government that rows back against Tory plans for further austerity. 

The Conservative campaign has been strangely lacklustre. The dual focus on the strengthening economy and Ed Miliband’s character, has yet to work. The problem is that messages on the economy are too abstract and do not resonate with ordinary people. And Ed Miliband has not disgraced himself in the public eye; far from it. He has come across as more human and approachable than the geeky nerd of popular Tory myth.

Mutterings from the Tory rank and file are beginning to emerge in the media. The PM is only listening to a small coterie of advisers, led by Australian pollster Lynton Crosby, and Labour has a far more efficient ground operation, especially in the marginals. Sir John Major, in a speech last week, was careful to avoid direct criticism of the Tory high command’s tactics, but made it clear that to win over nervous voters, the Tory message needed a vision that appealed beyond its core support.

For all the talk of this being an ideological election, there is little significant policy differences between the two parties; both have promised to bring the deficit down, both have promised to ringfence core services, both have promised to retain Trident. The most significant difference is one of tone, and the fact that the Conservatives are committed to an in-out referendum on Europe. While the Tories can count on the support of the business community, most leading business people are resolutely opposed to a Referendum and the uncertainty such a promise causes.

It has been surprising that immigration has barely raised its head as a major election issue, notwithstanding the emerging tragedy in the Mediterranean. UKIP and leader Nigel Farage has been oddly subdued, and I think are sticking to their grass roots and fighting hard on the ground in seats where they think they have a good chance, mostly along the East Coast.

In the polls, UKIP is stick in the low-teens, a fall on their strong showing at the European Elections. Farage holds a narrow lead in South Thanet; it is touch and go whether he’ll win the seat from the Tories.  

But no party leader has really sought to reach out beyond their core vote with a plan and vision for the country that is bold and exciting. It is a campaign-by-the-numbers, hence the tedium. It seems as though the parties are in thrall to the spin doctors and advisers and fearful of making the political weather.

Most voters know, for example, that the NHS in its current form is not fit for purpose, yet the low standard of debate – trying to outbid each other on who’s going to spend the most money, hire the most nurses, and so forth – is a huge turn off. We need politicians with cojones.

In many ways, the period following the Election will be much more interesting that the campaign itself, not simply the political horsetrading to find a Government which can carry a Queen’s Speech, but how a new Government will confront some fast emerging and serious constitutional issues – the EU Referendum, English votes for English laws and what the implications are for a minority Government in London being propped up by a party that wants to break up the Union.