Government's summer report begs the re-alignment question

Remember this year’s Queen’s speech? Mr Cameron couldn’t even get his own MPs to vote for the Government’s legislative programme.  Tory backbenchers smelled prime ministerial blood in the water; Home Secretary Teresa May was among a number of senior Tories said to be contemplating a leadership bid; Europhobes clamoured for Brexit paving legislation immediately; Westminster was febrile with plots and counter plots.  The Government was on the ropes, managing the headlines not leading from the front.

Fast forward to late July, and the political landscape seems to have changed absolutely. Rebellious Tories are nowhere to be seen; Mr Cameron had a veritable spring in his step commenting on the Royal birth outside Downing Street.

Any number of factors could be behind this amazing shift in mood, from the UK’s tremendous recent sporting achievements, the weather, the royal baby, all contribute to the general feelgood factor. Economic forecasts for 2013 GDP are being revised upwards (a little bit!), and Labour’s Ed Miliband has been bested several times in the bearpit of Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tories have sought to pin the blame for NHS woes onto the previous administration (with some success), and the Government’s performance on welfare reform (tougher) and crime (downwards trend) are also cited as factors in new-found Tory confidence. We’ve even managed to deport Abu Qatada to Jordan.

Nevermind that most of the better economic news is in the South East, and that the performance of the economy remains very patchy, No 10’s decision to postpone the reshuffle is proof that Tory High Command feel little need to rock the boat right now.

So let me rock the boat instead.

The Tories face an almost impossible task at the next General Election, at least where winning an outright majority is concerned. Notwithstanding Labour’s 10% opinion poll lead, psephologists say the Conservatives need a lead over Labour of around seven points and at least 40% of the vote to have any confidence of winning a majority next time.

That is three points more than the vote share they achieved at the last election. Incidentally no Conservative prime minister has improved his party's popularity since 1955. Neither has the party won an outright majority since the 1992 General Election.

And, there are more ethnic voters in the key marginals (generally suburban seats) than ever before. They do not vote Conservative. Scotland is a dead loss for the Tories, and so increasingly, is the North of England. Labour’s inbuilt urban advantage means they can win a majority in 2015 with only 35% of the vote.

That’s why the failed deal in 2012 with the Lib Dems on Lords Reform (a quid pro quo for boundary changes which favoured the Conservatives to the tune of maybe 25 extra seats) was such a disaster for Mr Cameron’s re-election prospects.

Tories yearning for a blue Government without a trace of orange will not see that wish fulfilled. Without a fundamental shift in political alignment, another spell of coalition government with the Lib Dems beckons.

But what would that political shift look like? There is little doubt that Mr Cameron and the socially liberal wing of the Conservative Party are closer in political outlook to Nick Clegg and his Lib Dem allies (David Laws, Ed Davey) than they are to the right wing of the Tory Party.

It is always dangerous to generalise, but If Mr Cameron were to ally those Tories who share his political instincts with the orange book liberals and disgruntled Blairites to form a new centrist bloc, the right wing would then merge with Ukip (a new ‘national’ party), leaving the remaining Labour MPs plus left–of-centre Lib Dems who tend to support Vince Cable, to become a socialist party in the European mould, led by Ed Miliband.

At the last General Election, voters chose a coalition as a means of removing Labour but using the Lib Dems as a bulwark against the Tory right. In short the UK wanted a centrist leaning Government and that’s what it got. By and large, the Coalition has worked, at the expense of the traditional party structures, which are hemorrhaging membership and money and seem doomed. 

If the electorate opts for more of the same in 2015, party leaders should take note and consider realigning British politics to create a flexible political system which truly reflects the prevailing public mood.